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Beat the Crowd: How You Can Out-Invest the Herd by Thinking Differently (Fisher Investments Press)
Free Ebook Beat the Crowd: How You Can Out-Invest the Herd by Thinking Differently (Fisher Investments Press)
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Review
“..a characteristically lively read….a good holiday read for any investor who suspects they may be stuck in their ways and in need of new insights” (Money Observer, July 2015)
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From the Inside Flap
Mainstream investors are wrong more often than right. Most folks intuitively know this, and statistics and studies back it up. How can you buck the trend and be right more often than wrong? Many believe doing the opposite of everyone else is the key to avoiding the herd's faulty investment decisions. Wall Street defines contrarian investing as betting the opposite of the crowd. Problem is, stocks often don't do the opposite of what most folks expect! Those who bet on the opposite, thinking it makes them a contrarian, behave as crowd-like as the crowd they try to game! If the herd thinks stocks will rise 10%, the anti-herders bet they'll fall—but markets could also skyrocket or zigzag sideways. In Beat the Crowd, bestselling author Ken Fisher shows you how to look beyond both crowds and find real contrarian opportunities that pay. Being a contrarian simply means thinking independently. Not getting caught up in media hype and endless debate over whether Thing X is good or bad for stocks. Looking for things everyone misses. Thinking differently than the crowd, but not necessarily opposite! Beat the Crowd helps you filter the noise, test rules of thumb, shatter media myths and avoid common pitfalls. If you're tired of media chatter and getting burned by consensus wisdom, this book is for you. With his signature style, Ken dispels common viewpoints and knocks age-old "rules" on their head. You'll learn how to separate what's important from what isn't, think outside the investing canon, find the "elephant in the room" and out-invest the herd.
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Product details
Series: Fisher Investments Press
Hardcover: 320 pages
Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (March 30, 2015)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1118973054
ISBN-13: 978-1118973059
Product Dimensions:
6.2 x 1.2 x 9.1 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.3 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
3.9 out of 5 stars
41 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#486,765 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
If you are an active investor you will find this a fascinating and useful book. It teaches you how to spot when a bull market will become a bear market in time. That is get out before the decline. Fischer explains in great detail why the majority of investors gets out too early before the bull market has peaked or too late when a bull market has already for a considerable period changed to a bear market. He shows how taking the Leading Economic Indicator, the LEI, seriously is the right way.Important reasons why investors get the timing wrong are lack of discipline and ignorance in the sense of wrong concepts. Discipline refers especially to not selling unnecessarily. Shares go up and down. Most investors when a position in a portfolio goes down consider selling and replacing it by a winner. They consider a small loss far more important than a large gain. This is behavior based on the past of what has already happened. Fischer points out that what matters is what is expected to happen in the next 30 months.Another important factor is the media that write about the stock market. People are more interested in bad news than good news, and therefore the majority of articles are written about short-term disappointments and negative developments further in the future than 30 months. His definite view is that both short-term opinions and extrapolations of the past and past 30 months predictions are useless for predicting changes from bull to bear and vice versa.Fischer points to more than thirty widely held views he considers wrong. Some examples. A high Price Earnings ratio (PE) has no validity in predicting a better or worse development than a low PE. Small companies do not have a superior long-term performance than large ones. The increase from long-term interest rates does not lead to a change in a bull market. Wars do not influence the stock market other than of the magnitude such as World War II. Fisher presents straightforward statistical proofs. He puts these concepts to tests to determine if these widely held view correspond to what happened in reality. It is necessary to look at a complete picture; there are always examples where these factors appeared to be right, but they are far fewer than when proven wrong. For learning to spot in time approaching bears and bulls this book is first class, five stars.Fisher frequently states that he is not a sociologist but nevertheless holds very negative opinions about politicians. Many people will have different views. His negative views of political leaders are so strong that they even get in the way of his statistical proofs. For example he states on page 132 that in 1938 the GDP started to increase when Franklin Roosevelt was president and on page 143 that a bear market reigned from 1934 to 1942. The reality is that already in 1934, FDR's second year in office, GDP increased with 10.8%. He states about the ACA on page 152 that the uninsured were reduced with between 7 to 10 million and on page 154 only with 1.1% which is only 3.5 million or half.Fisher as a non-sociologist has very definite opinions on government. He sometimes creates the impression that the kind of policies that President Hoover pursued most of the time of non-interference in the economy is the only right policy and political action. I nevertheless also enjoyed this part as he does also make thought-provoking comments on political action.
Worth reading. To be a good investor or speculator, you need to keep your spirits and mind clear. And to do that you have to shut out the din the media creates. This book is about the things you *don't* need to bother thinking about, and about the sorts of things you do need to consider.I find Fisher a little tiresome at times, in some of his other books and occasionally in this one. The contrarian schtick among other things. But even given that, this book is worth reading. It will free up your mind to think about the important things, or even just to rest a while. It's not that long or hard and it will sweep out all the incessant KRP. And save you time-- no, you don't need to watch that "financial" TV show.I'm very glad I read it.
This is the first one of Ken Fisher's books I have ever read, and I have to say I was pleasantly surprised. I was worried that I might not understand it or get lost after the first chapter, but actually it was pretty easy to follow. He goes through his explanation of contrarian investing (which I did not know much about before) and it all made good sense. He talks about a lot of things you hear on the news day to day, like global warming and America's runaway debt problems. The part that was interesting to me is that he does not really go into a long diatribe about what will or won't happen with these issues, he simply describes what they mean for an average investor. He also makes a lot of pop culture references that seemed unusual for a finance book but some of them were pretty funny. I will probably pick up one of his old books based on how much I enjoyed this one.
Just finished up with this book last night, and I'm glad I found it. I've dabbled on and off with investments over the years, with streaks of success and patches of rockiness. This book helped me to rethink some of my basic approaches to my portfolio, and in fact I'm probably going to look at my investments this weekend and make some changes based on what I've learned. In particular, I've found that I'm paying too much attention to short-term news and letting it make me either too excited or too scared. The funny thing is that I kind of already knew that about myself, and often times I would make a change knowing that I probably shouldn't. Reading through this book has affirmed that I should stick more to fundamentals and not worry so much about what I read in the paper or see on TV.The book itself is an easy read and only took me two days to finish. It's also written in a way that seems easy to understand even for someone who doesn't have a background in investing or know all the technical jargon. I also like that there are a lot of charts and other graphics to visualize the points being made. I always find it easier to see a concept displayed in a graph so that was a big help for me.Would definitely recommend this book for anyone managing their own investments or just interested in how it works.
I was a longtime reader of Mr. Fisher's column in Forbes magazine. Mr. Fisher is my favorite author when it comes to financial markets. He provides a lot of information that in retrospect should be obvious. This book is excellent at understanding why so many people in the herd are wrong so often. Mr. Fisher always blends in some humor which makes his writing fun as well as educational. He includes a lot of information regarding other books on this subject. Excellent as always!
This is the 3rd Ken Fisher book I've read, and once again, I'm very impressed by the overall simplicity of concepts combined with the deep knowledge and real evidence (not statistical jargon!) he provides in his work. I'm by no means a financial guru, but I read about "money" quite a bit, and I struggle to find an author I'd place above him in terms of logical, practical, and applicable advice. He is easy to follow no matter what your level of expertise might be - I highly recommend this newest book!
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